Why I Am Skeptical That Apple Will Release An AR/MR Headset In 2023
Speculation abounds on Apple’s projected entry into AR/MR headsets.
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In the past two months, there have been comments and articles predicting that Apple will release its long-awaited AR/MR headset this year. I won’t go into all the various rumors and predictions as they are all over the map.
However, one of the rumors that I find ludicrous suggests a battery pack needs to be worn to power the headset. Given Apple’s design language, the idea of wearing a battery pack to power the headset seems highly implausible.
Another rumor suggests a headset released this year could be priced as much as $3000. This, too, seems ridiculous as Apple intends to get any headset they release to as many people as possible from the start. So Apple could release an expensive first-generation headset to seed the market. However, I can only see it priced at most $1500, even for early adopters. Even at that price, it would be a stretch unless a developer needs one to design software for it or industry professionals and extreme early adopters who will buy anything new Apple brings to market.
It is essential to remember that any new hardware Apple releases must serve a higher purpose. Besides a headset’s utility, its reason to exist is to be a vehicle for Apple to provide paid applications and services, which is a recurring revenue stream that powers Apple’s profits. That means Apple needs volume sales of headsets to drive new applications and services.
While a lot of great technology has been developed since Apple introduced its AR Kit software in 2017, even six years later, I am not sure we still have the technology that fulfills Tim Cook’s vision of AR.
As I have written in the past, after the launch of AR Kit, I had a private discussion with Tim Cook about his vision for AR. At that time, he told me Apple developing AR solutions might be Apple’s most significant contribution to the tech world. Of course, that is saying something, given the success and impact of the iPhone.
At that time, his vision, as demonstrated at the 2017 WWDC introduction of the AR Kit, was AR focused. He was clear that integrating virtual images and data over real-world situations was at the heart of his vision.
It is true that since then, he has broadened his view to include some form of mixed reality. But the purpose of any headset released in 2023 or the future must provide a dead-center focus on AR if Cook’s vision is to be realized from the beginning.
To do that, any headset from Apple will require an optical technology called Optical Waveguides. Radiant Vision Systems has created a great resource explaining waveguides’ role in AR/MR devices.
“Waveguides in AR/MR Devices”
“The principal technology that has enabled augmented visualization in AR/MR is waveguides: a thin piece of clear glass or plastic with specific light transmitting properties. Already a well-established concept, waveguides have been used in multiple technology applications such as fiber optics, LED backlights, holograms, and more. In all applications, waveguides are used to “guide” electromagnetic waves in specific directions, shapes, or patterns.
In near-eye devices (NEDs), optical waveguides help bend and combine light to direct it into the eye and create the virtual images seen by the wearer overlaid onto the environment. They propagate a light field via the mechanism of total internal reflection (TIR), bouncing light between the inner and outer edges of the waveguide layer with very little light leakage.
VR headsets can display images from a projector or imaging system placed directly in front of the wearer, but AR/MR devices need “see-through” functionality. The imaging system cannot block the front view, which therefore requires one or several additional optical elements to form an ‘optical combiner.’ The optical combiner reflects virtual images while transmitting external light to the human eye, overlaying the virtual content on top of the real scene, for them to complement and ‘augment’ each other.”
I suggest this primer on waveguides is read to better understand how important it is to deliver an actual AR experience.
In a meeting I had at CES, I met with a crucial company that is at the heart of advanced waveguide solutions for AR. I asked them directly how soon we would have the kind of optical quality that could deliver the type of AR visuals required to make world-defining and highly consumer-acceptable AR headsets.
The one company I met with was Lumus, which has a version of its technology in AR glasses now. Examples of these glasses in use today were discussed in a VentureBeat article on Lumus’ Z-Lens Architecture.
Their design wins with this current version of their waveguide solutions is impressive. But they showed me a prototype of the next generation that is even more impressive, with greater visual clarity and functionality. I suspect this version, as similar ones, will be the minimum quality needed to deliver the kind of AR experience that will be genuinely acceptable to businesses and consumers.
However, their next generation Z-Lens architecture is still another 15 months out at best, although they are working feverishly to try and get it in the market in 2024.
Our team saw another waveguide technology similar to Lumus’ version, but it too is at least another 15 months out before it can be integrated into commercial AR glasses.
The waveguide quality that is needed to deliver a truly optimized AR experience appears to be at least another year out. This is why I am skeptical Apple will deliver its headset in 2023.
As I know from experience covering tech for 40 years, you can never say never. Knowing Apple as well as I do, they will not release anything at a $3000 price point nor one that needs a wearable battery pack.
While we have interviewed two world-class waveguide vendors who project better solutions at least 15 months out, we are not privy to other waveguide vendors who may be more advanced with their answers.
There is one plausible rumor that Apple could deliver a Gen 1 version that does not necessarily have the kind of technology that could provide Apple’s full vision for its overall AR program. Indeed, as we know, the iPhone and iPad were both released with available technology and became essential to the developer community. They used these first versions to write thousands of apps for each platform that helped make the iPhone and iPad big successes.
However, the more I learn about waveguide optics, the more I see this technology being critical to the success of any genuine AR glasses in the future.
