Can ‘Diablo 4’ Beat Out ‘Hogwarts Legacy’ For The Biggest Game Of 2023?

We are now a day away from Diablo 4’s beta launch, our first real, non-press preview of the game that includes a substantial amount of content (if you’ve pre-ordered, of course, as the open beta is later).

I previously said that I thought that Diablo 4 could end up being the biggest game of 2023 in terms of sales, though that was before I saw just how strong Hogwarts Legacy ended up being. Now, I’m not so sure.

Both Diablo 4 and Hogwarts Legacy have something in common, and no, not magic. Rather, both games in many ways seem/seemed too good to be true. I am deeply skeptical of AAA games overpromising and underdelivering, and Hogwarts Legacy in particular looked like a Harry Potter fans’ dream game with a sprawling world, huge array of spells and missions and systems that felt like the game people have wanted for two decades since the books came out.

I was doubtful it would actually deliver, given the expectations presented and the somewhat inexperienced team making it, but it…did? No, Hogwarts Legacy is not a perfect game by any means, but it reviewed well, launched without serious technical or gameplay issues, and fan excitement and word of mouth had it sell 12 million copies in just two weeks, well on its way to 20 million in its first year, most likely, since it doesn’t need to contend with Cyberpunk 2077-type “we must spend the next two years fixing the game” issues.

That’s going to be hard for any game to top this year, I think. Starfield is out of contention because it’s an Xbox exclusive and also on Game Pass, meaning sales will be low since so many people will get it for “free.” Marvel’s Spider-Man 2 will no doubt sell very well, but it’s PlayStation exclusive and I very much doubt it will make it out in 2023 in the first place.

That leaves Call of Duty, which I am suspicious of given current Activision turmoil and debates about whether or not whatever comes out this fall will be a “real” Call of Duty game, or just an extension of Modern Warfare 2. And it leaves Diablo 4, which I would consider probably the only serious contender.

You should absolutely, 100% not underestimate Diablo 4’s sales potential. Diablo 3 was a massive hit. At the time it was the fastest-selling PC game in history, and that was even despite an incredibly rocky launch. It sold 12 million copies by the end of its first calendar year, and then sold 30 million three years later in 2015.

Diablo 4, I would also argue, also looks almost too good to be true from everything I’ve seen. I think we have every reason to be skeptical of the game, given the state of Blizzard which frankly, constantly seems like its on the verge of collapse. Diablo 4 also lost several key team members during development including its director, fired for not acting on information they’d received about abuses within the company. How can they deliver the game Diablo 4 needs to be with Blizzard in this state?

But there is nothing, not one piece of revealed information or promotion, that gives me pause about Diablo 4. Everything is exactly what I want to see and hear. No more talk of an auction house. It is a “live” game, but will sell only cosmetics in its inevitable battle pass. It’s returning to a darker tone, channeling Diablo 2. Gameplay and cinematics look stellar. And if it can avoid the disastrous Error 37 issues of D3’s botched launch, it’s hard to see how this game does not break more records at launch, and go on to be one of the best-selling games of the year. If not the best.

12 million sales in two weeks for Hogwarts Legacy is going to be hard to beat, however, and it very well may creep close to 20 million by year’s end. Diablo 4, like Hogwarts Legacy, has multiplatform appeal and is not locked into being an exclusive. The Microsoft Activision deal is not done, so Diablo 4 is not launching for free on Game Pass. That’s a lot of sales on the table.

All of this depends on whether Diablo 4 ends up being as good as it looks, similar to how Hogwarts Legacy delivered for Harry Potter fans. My brain says it can’t be, but my heart says it might be. Though even if so, beating out Hogwarts is going to be an exceptionally tall order.

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Pick up my sci-fi novels the Herokiller series and The Earthborn Trilogy.